Monday 30 May 2011

Scottish Elections: Results and Fallout

Well, the elections are over, over for quite some time, but I wanted to see the fallout of the campaigns before posting, honest.
So, for those who weren't watching, it was an unprecidented result, in a parliament with a voting system specifically designed to stop any party achieving a majority, with the express goal of keeping the SNP out and an independence vote off the table, the SNP have won the first majority government in Scotland.  Yes, Scotland currently has a government that can be absolutely secure in the fact that it has a mandate from the majority of voters, that's PR for you.
While the collapse of the Lib-Dem vote helped, with most of their voters clearly turning to the Nats, they also made massive inroads into common Labour safe seats.  The response from the Labour side has varied in the blogosphere.  There was denial, particularly during the election, where Labour were convinced it was merely the Lib-Dem swing, despite loosing safe seats to the SNP, or as seen here, Denial mixed with a shrill terror that the Evil Nationalists are re-building Hadrian's wall as we speak.  Or here, where they blame the Tories for their loss.
Fortunately, most of the other blogs have correctly started looking inward for the reasons of Labours Defeat.
Part of it had to be the woeful negative campaign.  Put simply it appeared Labour were confident Scotland would sharpen up from its little dalliance with a party that wasn't them now the Tories were in and all they really needed to do was sit back, make some comments about how terrible the Tories were and the voters would flood back.  It highlights a basic flaw in Labours general national plans so far.  In effect labour are working on the principle that they will win the next election through the virtue of not being the Tories.  That is so far the entirety of their case.  Scotland should be a wake up call that this is not nearly enough.
The other interesting point was Labour's inability to fight on the Centre left, uncommon in westminster elections where they merely have to fight for the same few swing seats against the Tories, but more common in Scotland.  Furthermore, it shows how Labour still take their working class vote for granted, and they shouldn't since they are seeking out alternatives as it sinks in that Labour no longer represent them.  Hopefully this will be a kick up the behind for Labour, however so far the party has been pretty quiet.
So, independence, will it happen.  I know a few nationalists (Hell, I'm married to one) and most of them think it won't happen.  I have to agree, I don't think there is the appetite.  However, the opposition parties should not think that a loss on an independence referendum will mean the end of the SNP.  A lost referendum will actually show that people clearly liked the SNP's policys despite the independence issue rather than because of it, and Labour really should be looking at that side of the SNP and learning.
As for the SNP, the training wheels are off, no more excuses this time, no minority status to fall back on and the "It's Westminster's fault" argument will grow tired if its wheeled out repeatedly.  Interesting times indeed.

No comments:

Post a Comment